New Insider Advantage polls show Republicans with narrow leads - myfoxcarolinas.com

New Insider Advantage polls show Republicans with narrow leads

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An InsiderAdvantage/Opinion Savvy survey of 719 likely voters shows both the contests for U.S. Senate and for governor of Georgia to be competitive races. The poll of ‘landline' and mobile device respondents was conducted August 12 and 13. The poll has a margin of error of 3.7%. For the full crosstabs and more on the poll itself visit www.insideradvantage.com and www.opinionsavvy.com.

The Results

Governor:

Nathan Deal (Republican incumbent): 43%

Jason Carter (Democrat): 39%

Andrew Hunt (Libertarian): 7%

Undecided: 11%

Senate:

David Perdue (Republican): 47%

Michelle Nunn (Democrat): 40%

Amanda Swafford (Libertarian): 8%

Undecided: 5%

Brief analyses by Matt Towery, CEO InsiderAdvantage/Fox5 Political Analyst:

Race for Governor:

“This race could easily become a runoff contest. Deal leads, but his lead is not substantial. Nearly 35% of African-American voters say they are voting for Deal or are undecided. Based on past voting patterns, most of those votes will move into the Carter camp by Election Day.

“The undecided white vote is only 8%. That gives Deal very little room to navigate above 50%, and thus to avoid a runoff. To do so he must lessen the support for Libertarian Andrew Hunt, and move additional white independent voters to his side. Additionally, the youngest of voters, who traditionally vote Democrat (and are notorious for not voting in mid-term contests), overwhelmingly favor Deal at the moment. That is likely a function of name awareness, as these are the least likely of voters to have seen recent political ads. As the race heats up, Deal must hold on to these voters as well,” said Towery.

Race for U.S. Senate:

“This race is also competitive, but Nunn has a deeper challenge than does Carter in his race,” said Towery. “Nunn is not doing as well with independent white voters as her Democratic counterpart for governor. Perdue, who did well with women voters in both the primary and the primary runoff, continues to perform well, running about equal with Nunn. But among male voters Perdue has a significant lead.

“For Nunn to push this race into a runoff, she must increase her numbers among white men, and among independent voters, who currently favor Perdue by 14 points. She will pick up additional points as African-American voters drift from the undecided camp and as the youngest of voters, who likely have never heard of Perdue, drift more to their natural Democratic voting pattern.

“For Perdue to avoid a runoff, he must increase his numbers among women voters, and start to appeal to voters who are parents of teenagers or young children. Those age groups are Nunn's base of support. With only 6% undecided, Perdue needs everything he can get to cross the 50%-plus-one vote line for a victory in November. But if the elections were held today, Perdue would slip past a runoff while Deal and Carter would likely be in one,” Towery said.

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